A632.8.3.RB
Reflections
on the Cynefin Framework
In
this blog, I am asked to create a reflection based on critically thinking about
how the Cynefin Framework can benefit your decision-making. Consider the chart
on page 7 of the HBR article A Leader's Framework for Decision Making and
discuss decision-making in multiple contexts; include two specific examples of
decisions in multiple contexts that you have made. Detail the considerations
from the various contexts that influenced your decision. Critically
assess the Cynefin Framework and describe 5 ways it can provide an improved
context for decision making.
Until
this course, I was totally unaware that this framework even existed. Yes, I knew that some decisions were simple,
some were complicated, some were complex, and even some were chaotic. Most of my experiences in the chaotic quadrant
took place in a combat environment. When
I was a young Soldier, all decisions were based on the simple quadrant... “wax
the floor”, “polish the brass”, “clean the latrine”, “drive the jeep”, “sweep
the floor”, and other simple tasks. This
did not require the use of very much gray matter to get the desired
result.
As I
developed into a leader through training, military education, and mentorship,
the tasks that I faced moved from the simple to the complicated and even
complex. It was part of my growth. I had to be able to think on my feet and
direct my subordinates through anything that we could possibly face. You, see…although the military is very
structured, it is very fluid. Things can
turn on a dime. In peace time, this
often occurs at the whim of the Commander.
Nothing is carved in stone.
During operations, a fragmentary Order (FRAGO) can come at any
time. The FRAGO usually takes the
operation back to the beginning and send it in a different direction. Snowden (n.d.) refers to it as “resetting”. Young Soldiers hate resetting! They have already done so much and now they
must undo what they have done and start all over again.
In
the context of chaotic, I only experienced this during combat. Although we had excellent intelligence, the
enemy could always be unpredictable. But
guess what? Sometimes in the midst of
chaos, things aren’t always as they seem.
An example of this occurred in 1991 while I was deployed to the Middle
East during the first Gulf War. We had
set up a hasty assembly area and were about to have lunch. Suddenly radios
started crackling and the word was that our Squadron was engaging the
enemy. The Squadron Commander,
Lieutenant Colonel (LTC) Edward J. O’Shaughnessy, Jr. radioed the Howitzer
Battery (HB) to start delivering indirect fire to the enemy’s location. The sound of artillery echoed for miles. Radio transmissions came constantly when
suddenly, LTC O’Shaughnessy ordered, “Cease fire”. Oddly, the cannons did not stop. He ordered it again. Still cannon fire. He finally demanded it over the radio and the
HB Commander stated that he had ceased fire.
Now chaos ensued. Who was
firing? It had to be the enemy. The entire Squadron went into full retreat,
pulling back a kilometer as advised in the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP)
leaving food, trash, and water behind.
Once the Squadron regrouped, it was discovered that units from the 7th
Infantry Division were delivering indirect fire on the Squadron’s location
because they believed that they were engaging the enemy. Bad intel and total chaos.
The
Cynefin Framework make sense to me but it isn’t something that I believe needs
to be defined. Especially from the military
perspective. I actually find it just a
map of common sense already used by many managers and leaders.
I do,
however, like the Snowden and Boone (2007) descriptions found in the HBR
article:
Simple Contexts: The Domain of Best
Practice
Simple contexts are characterized by stability and
clear cause-and-effect relationships that are easily discernible by everyone.
Often, the right answer is self-evident and undisputed. In this realm of “known
knowns,” decisions are unquestioned because all parties share an understanding.
Areas that are little subject to change, such as problems with order processing
and fulfillment, usually belong here.
I
like the known. Usually these are daily
tasks that do not change. These are
things that we have full knowledge of and very little change occurs from day to
day.
Complicated Contexts: The Domain of
Experts
Complicated contexts, unlike simple ones, may contain
multiple right answers, and though there is a clear relationship between cause
and effect, not everyone can see it. This is the realm of “known unknowns.”
While leaders in a simple context must sense, categorize, and respond to a
situation, those in a complicated context must sense, analyze, and
respond. This approach is not easy and often requires expertise: A motorist may
know that something is wrong with his car because the engine is knocking, but
he has to take it to a mechanic to diagnose the problem.
This
is where I usually exist. This is the
context that I must use my leadership.
In the complicated contexts, the leader must lead.
Complex Contexts: The Domain of Emergence
In a complicated context, at least one right answer
exists. In a complex context, however, right answers can’t be ferreted out.
It’s like the difference between, say, a Ferrari and the Brazilian rainforest.
Ferraris are complicated machines, but an expert mechanic can take one apart
and reassemble it without changing a thing. The car is static, and the whole is
the sum of its parts. The rainforest, on the other hand, is in constant flux—a
species becomes extinct, weather patterns change, an agricultural project
reroutes a water source—and the whole is far more than the sum of its parts.
This is the realm of “unknown unknowns,” and it is the domain to which much of
contemporary business has shifted.
In
the Army, complex contexts are part of the training phase. New Soldiers are like a blank canvas. SOPs mean nothing to them however only have
the “right answer”. This also applies to
Regulations, Field Manuals (FMs), and Technical Manuals (TMs). Through trial and error, the Army has
concluded that there is only one correct way to do something.
Chaotic Contexts: The Domain of Rapid
Response
In a chaotic context, searching for right answers
would be pointless: The relationships between cause and effect are impossible
to determine because they shift constantly and no manageable patterns
exist—only turbulence. This is the realm of unknowables. The events of
September 11, 2001, fall into this category.
Chaos
is chaos. As a retired military leader,
I trained my Soldiers to deal with chaos effectively. In combat, it could be the difference between
life and death. I trained them to deal
with the unknown. Multiple
scenarios. All of the what-ifs that we
could think of were discussed.
References
Snowden, D.J & Boone, M.E. (2007, November). A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making
Snowden, D. (n.d.). The Cynefin Framework. [Video
File]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7oz366X0-8
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