Tuesday, July 25, 2017

A632.8.3.RB_ReflectionsontheCynefinFramework_LouBeldotti


A632.8.3.RB

Reflections on the Cynefin Framework


            In this blog, I am asked to create a reflection based on critically thinking about how the Cynefin Framework can benefit your decision-making. Consider the chart on page 7 of the HBR article A Leader's Framework for Decision Making and discuss decision-making in multiple contexts; include two specific examples of decisions in multiple contexts that you have made. Detail the considerations from the various contexts that influenced your decision.  Critically assess the Cynefin Framework and describe 5 ways it can provide an improved context for decision making.

            Until this course, I was totally unaware that this framework even existed.  Yes, I knew that some decisions were simple, some were complicated, some were complex, and even some were chaotic.  Most of my experiences in the chaotic quadrant took place in a combat environment.  When I was a young Soldier, all decisions were based on the simple quadrant... “wax the floor”, “polish the brass”, “clean the latrine”, “drive the jeep”, “sweep the floor”, and other simple tasks.  This did not require the use of very much gray matter to get the desired result. 

            As I developed into a leader through training, military education, and mentorship, the tasks that I faced moved from the simple to the complicated and even complex.  It was part of my growth.  I had to be able to think on my feet and direct my subordinates through anything that we could possibly face.  You, see…although the military is very structured, it is very fluid.  Things can turn on a dime.  In peace time, this often occurs at the whim of the Commander.  Nothing is carved in stone.  During operations, a fragmentary Order (FRAGO) can come at any time.  The FRAGO usually takes the operation back to the beginning and send it in a different direction.  Snowden (n.d.) refers to it as “resetting”.  Young Soldiers hate resetting!  They have already done so much and now they must undo what they have done and start all over again.

            In the context of chaotic, I only experienced this during combat.  Although we had excellent intelligence, the enemy could always be unpredictable.  But guess what?  Sometimes in the midst of chaos, things aren’t always as they seem.  An example of this occurred in 1991 while I was deployed to the Middle East during the first Gulf War.  We had set up a hasty assembly area and were about to have lunch. Suddenly radios started crackling and the word was that our Squadron was engaging the enemy.  The Squadron Commander, Lieutenant Colonel (LTC) Edward J. O’Shaughnessy, Jr. radioed the Howitzer Battery (HB) to start delivering indirect fire to the enemy’s location.  The sound of artillery echoed for miles.  Radio transmissions came constantly when suddenly, LTC O’Shaughnessy ordered, “Cease fire”.  Oddly, the cannons did not stop.  He ordered it again.  Still cannon fire.  He finally demanded it over the radio and the HB Commander stated that he had ceased fire.  Now chaos ensued.  Who was firing?  It had to be the enemy.  The entire Squadron went into full retreat, pulling back a kilometer as advised in the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) leaving food, trash, and water behind.  Once the Squadron regrouped, it was discovered that units from the 7th Infantry Division were delivering indirect fire on the Squadron’s location because they believed that they were engaging the enemy.  Bad intel and total chaos.

            The Cynefin Framework make sense to me but it isn’t something that I believe needs to be defined.  Especially from the military perspective.  I actually find it just a map of common sense already used by many managers and leaders. 

            I do, however, like the Snowden and Boone (2007) descriptions found in the HBR article:

Simple Contexts: The Domain of Best Practice
Simple contexts are characterized by stability and clear cause-and-effect relationships that are easily discernible by everyone. Often, the right answer is self-evident and undisputed. In this realm of “known knowns,” decisions are unquestioned because all parties share an understanding. Areas that are little subject to change, such as problems with order processing and fulfillment, usually belong here.
            I like the known.  Usually these are daily tasks that do not change.  These are things that we have full knowledge of and very little change occurs from day to day.

Complicated Contexts: The Domain of Experts
Complicated contexts, unlike simple ones, may contain multiple right answers, and though there is a clear relationship between cause and effect, not everyone can see it. This is the realm of “known unknowns.” While leaders in a simple context must sense, categorize, and respond to a situation, those in a complicated context must sense, analyze, and respond. This approach is not easy and often requires expertise: A motorist may know that something is wrong with his car because the engine is knocking, but he has to take it to a mechanic to diagnose the problem.
            This is where I usually exist.  This is the context that I must use my leadership.  In the complicated contexts, the leader must lead. 

Complex Contexts: The Domain of Emergence
In a complicated context, at least one right answer exists. In a complex context, however, right answers can’t be ferreted out. It’s like the difference between, say, a Ferrari and the Brazilian rainforest. Ferraris are complicated machines, but an expert mechanic can take one apart and reassemble it without changing a thing. The car is static, and the whole is the sum of its parts. The rainforest, on the other hand, is in constant flux—a species becomes extinct, weather patterns change, an agricultural project reroutes a water source—and the whole is far more than the sum of its parts. This is the realm of “unknown unknowns,” and it is the domain to which much of contemporary business has shifted.
            In the Army, complex contexts are part of the training phase.  New Soldiers are like a blank canvas.  SOPs mean nothing to them however only have the “right answer”.  This also applies to Regulations, Field Manuals (FMs), and Technical Manuals (TMs).  Through trial and error, the Army has concluded that there is only one correct way to do something. 

Chaotic Contexts: The Domain of Rapid Response
In a chaotic context, searching for right answers would be pointless: The relationships between cause and effect are impossible to determine because they shift constantly and no manageable patterns exist—only turbulence. This is the realm of unknowables. The events of September 11, 2001, fall into this category.
            Chaos is chaos.  As a retired military leader, I trained my Soldiers to deal with chaos effectively.  In combat, it could be the difference between life and death.  I trained them to deal with the unknown.  Multiple scenarios.  All of the what-ifs that we could think of were discussed.
           
References
Snowden, D.J & Boone, M.E. (2007, November). A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making


Snowden, D. (n.d.). The Cynefin Framework. [Video File]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7oz366X0-8

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