A632.2.3.RB_HowToMakeChoosingEasier_LouBeldotti

A632.2.3.RB

Sheena Iyengar: How to Make Choosing Easier

            In her video, Sheena Iyengar (2011) indicates that choice overload has the biggest effect on making decisions or choices.  I would have to completely agree.  It is always a conundrum when I go to stores such as Sam’s Club or World Market.  So many choices.  So many, choice, so little time!  Don’t get me wrong, I like choices.  However, I often spend hours in these stores and often buy very little.  But other times I come out spending entirely too much money.  When I go to these places I must bring my wife to keep me in check.  You see, I am an impulse buyer.

            As I see it, more is not better.  “More” often causes confusion.  I often have a hard time items that offer too many choices unless I know exactly what I want.  Things like jeans and canned tomatoes use to drive me nuts.  However, I now only by a certain brand and style of jeans and a certain brand of canned tomatoes regardless of the amount of choices around me.  According to Iyengar (2001), “Less is more”. She informs the viewer that too many choices cause the following: 

       

·         You are more likely to delay choosing.

·         You make worse choices.

·         You choose things that make you less satisfied.

            I get it.  Like I said earlier, I may come out of the store without anything or less than I intended, I may be caused to impulse buy, and I sometimes have “buyer’s remorse”.

            Iyengar (2001) then discusses for techniques to mitigate choice overload.  She first states that choices should be “cut”.  I believe that this applies more to the retailer but can be applied to the consumer.  The retailer should offer less choices. In Iyengar’s researcher, she describes improved sales and profits.  As a consumer, I should already have my mind set on what I want.  Just like the jeans and canned tomatoes. 

            Her next technique is “concretization”.  Make concrete decisions by have knowledge of the consequences associated with the choice.  As described in the first technique, I already have my mind solidly set on certain products.  An organization can also use this technique by only offering its employees certain benefits and not an endless buffet of options.  Things like retirement plans and health/dental options cost the company less and doesn’t confuse the employee. 

            Her next technique is categorization.  She informs the viewer that we can handle more categories than choices.  I am pretty sure that is why almost all grocery stores are organized in categories.  Just look at the aisle marques and you’ll understand.  Everything fresh or perishable is on the outer walls like the bakery, produce, and meats while everything else is aligned in aisles in the middle.  I am such a frequent food shopper that I can navigate a grocery store with my eyes closed.  I know the categories of the aisles…condiments…spices…pasta, rice, beans, and sauces and so on. 

            Her final technique is condition for complexity.  She informs the viewer that we can handle a lot more information than we think.  I agree.  Information is one thing but choices are another.  I would add that as consumers, we must have our choices in mind before making these decision by doing research.  The decision to buy a car, furniture, health insurance and more.  Our minds can handle the information, we just need to be ready to narrow down the choices.

           

Reference

Iyengar, S. (2011). How to making choosing easier. TED. [VIDEO FILE]. Retrieved from https://www.ted.com/talks/sheena_iyengar_choosing_what_to_choose

A632.4.4.RB_DeceptionInNegotiations_LouBeldotti

A632.4.4.RB

Deception in Negotiations

“Can you detect a lie?  One study found that 28 percent of negotiators lied about a common interest issues during negotiations, while another study found that 100 percent of negotiators either failed to reveal a problem or actively lied about it during negotiations if they were not directly asked about the issue.” (Hoch et al, pg. 187, 2001)

            I have experience in this.  In the early 90s, I moonlit as a car salesman and from 1994 – 2003, I served as an US Army Recruiter.  Let me be honest, a sales person does what he or she has to close the deal.  Is lying required?  No.  Is omitting information wrong?  From my experiences I’m going to go with a “no”.  If you didn’t ask me, I didn’t volunteer the information.

            In car sales, the product spoke for itself.  During delivery, all the bells and whistles need to be described to the buyer.  The negotiation happened during the sale and it was actually the Sales Manager and Finance person that gave the bottom line.  It was up to the salesperson to close the deal.  Tactics like telling the customer that the price was only valid “today” or throwing in free oil changes usually closed the deal.  Other layers of persuasion would be added if the customer wanted to “walk”.

            Recruiting was a bit different.  In the old days, we would seek a dominant buying motive (DBM), by using TEAMS.  Training…was the applicant looking for a skill?, Education…was the applicant looking for money for college?, Adventure…was the applicant looking for a thrill like jumping out of a plane?, Money…was the applicant looking for a guaranteed pay check?, or Service to Country…was the applicant just interested in serving his or her country or carrying on a family tradition? 

            Omission of information is common practice in negotiations.  Sadly, so is lying.  However, a skilled negotiator can detect lies very easily.

            So, in this blog, I am asked to reflect on deceptions in negotiations and describe four ways to reduce your vulnerability to deception during negotiations, relate an example of a recent negotiation in which I was misled and one in which I may have overstated a claim. In the case of the overstatement, how far would I have gone, or did I actually go, to leverage your position?

            So how does one reduce his or her vulnerability to deception during negotiations?  Here are my thoughts.

            1.  Don’t be gullible and believe everything you hear.  Vet, vet, vet!

            2.  Do your research.  Know who you are dealing with.

            3.  Sleep on it.  Never say yes until you are absolutely sure.  This pisses sales people off. 

            4.  Take “no” for an answer.  Give “no” for an answer. Don’t be afraid of “NO”.

            My wife and I have had three opportunities to say no in the past year and a half.  We have had someone try to sell us a water softener, another try to convince us into solar panels, and a third try to sell us another water softener.  The first water softener person was very convincing.  We actually said “yes” but after the agreement, we exercised our “buyers right to rescind” after sleeping on it because the sale was made in our home.  The solar panel guys visited us over a year ago.  He then made contact again and we invited him out to our home.  His sales pitch made sense but we said “no” because of the cost.  Finally, the next water softener sales person made sense and we have been enjoying the product for several months.  The company threw in ten years of soaps, lotions, and potions.  We saw this as a win-win although the price was higher than me being a similar device at Lowes or Home Depot and installing it myself.

            Since I work in secondary education, I really don’t have many opportunities to overstate my product.  Secondary education is compulsory to age 16 in most states.  Kids have to go to school.  However, kids do not need to pick my elective.  I tell them how great my program is and they and their parents make their choice.  I need to keep my numbers up to 10% of the student population or 150 Cadets per year, whichever is lesser.  Sometimes I have to sell the program. 

Reference

Hoch, S.J., Kunreuther, H.C., with Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on Making Decisions. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons

A632.1.4.RB_Multistage Decision-Making_Lou Beldotti

A632.1.4.RB

Multistage Decision-Making

            How about the graphic above?!  To me, it reads like stereo instructions.  Is decision-making really a mathematical equation?  I’m going to say…no.  However, there is something definitely very analytical about decision making.

            For this blog, I have been challenged with the following:  Hoch, Chapter 3 discusses the power of everyday reasoning in multistage decision-making. The text discusses the way that researchers solve multistage problems through the application of formulas (dynamic programming models) that provide the most significant chances of success. Critically think about your own decision-making process and reflect on the process you use in relation to the decision making process recommendations outlined in the article. How would you apply optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict the future impact of today's decision? Additionally, would the conclusions reached on pages 57 of the text improve your decision-making? How and why?

            According to Hoch, et al (2001), “Optimal dynamic programming solutions are based on two foundational assumptions about problem solving that, if violated, would likely lead to the poor performance of any intuitive solution:

1.      Complete forward planning.  When maximizing total utility over a horizon, decision makers are assumed to look ahead to all future periods and anticipate all possible choices and outcomes.

2.      Optimal learning.  Decisions are assumed to fully utilize past information to update current beliefs and future predictions

            Sounds like I need to be an actuary.  Not really.  However, to properly solve problems, I need to be as analytical and logical as Mr. Spock from “Star Trek” and as astute and observant as Sean from “Psych”.

            I’m a forward thinker.  I am always thing five steps ahead.  Maybe more.  Just ask my wife.  When a decision is required I fire up the old gray matter.  If I do “this” what will the potential outcome(s) be?  If I need to get a drink from the fridge, I honestly think about the steps that are required to fulfill that need.  My first inclination is to ask my wife.  However, if she is doing something else, I certainly can’t ask my dogs so I have to do it myself.  I actually think about the glass, how much ice is in the freezer, and my beverage of choice and its location.  Silly.  I am often called anal which is a derivative of analytical.  This goes for about everything I do.  I actually think about all the things that can go wrong in my decisions and how to avoid them or overcome them.  Again, ask the Missus. 

            I have learned from my mistakes.  I once used a razor blade to open a paint container.  I no longer do that.  I’ll show you the scar.  I once ate too much.  I once left a candle burning and fell asleep.  I once backed out of the garage with my car door open.  I once touched a hot stove.  There are a lot of “onces”.  Have I done these things twice?  Nope.  However, there are things that I have done over and over again being met with the same results.  What causes this?  Myopia.  According to Hoch (2001, pg. 46), “What drives our tendency toward shortsightedness?  The most obvious culprits, of course, are cognitive limitations”.  The lights are on but no one is home.  It reminds of Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity, “Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

            Ok, so let us continue to delve into the science of decision making.  Decisions are sometimes emotional.  Who hasn’t heard of the husband or wife doing something outside of the norm because of emotion(s)?  I mean there are people who have stolen and even killed because of emotions.  So how do we bridle and harness these emotions?  “The first step to using our approach to emotion-laden decisions is simply to recognize that emotions have an impact on decisions.  Neglecting these considerations may be costly (Hoch, 2001).”  I say, be cognitive of your emotions. 

            Look gentle reader, think critically, think analytically, and be aware of your emotions.  Do not base your decisions on feelings, gut, or emotions.  However, a mathematical equation is not necessary.   Think, damn it.  Think!

Reference

Hoch, S. J., Kunrreuther, H. C., & Gunther, R. E. (2001).  Wharton on making decisions.  Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons